{
  "generated": "2026-07-04",
  "prereg": "preregistration/2026-07-04_study3b-hetero-contagion.md",
  "population": "4x claude-haiku-4-5 + 3x gpt-4o-mini (heterogeneous)",
  "n_questions": 59,
  "n_founder_claims": 136,
  "bootstrap": {
    "resamples": 10000,
    "seed": 20260704
  },
  "survival_base_rate": 0.4485,
  "P_H1_manipulation_more_competition": {
    "n_shared": 59,
    "hetero_frac_disagree": 0.4576,
    "homo_frac_disagree": 0.3729,
    "delta_ci": {
      "mean": 0.0852,
      "lo": -0.0169,
      "hi": 0.1864
    },
    "verdict": "NOT CONFIRMED"
  },
  "auc_survival_by": {
    "intro_confidence": 0.6849,
    "correctness": 0.7925
  },
  "P_H2_primary_confidence_vs_correctness": {
    "delta_auc_ci": {
      "mean": -0.1072,
      "lo": -0.2071,
      "hi": -0.0073
    },
    "verdict": "NOT CONFIRMED"
  },
  "initial_popularity_control": {
    "n_singletons": 62,
    "auc_survival_by_confidence": 0.5701,
    "auc_survival_by_correctness": 0.4909
  },
  "confident_falsehood": {
    "median_intro_confidence": 0.911,
    "survival_confident_wrong": 0.2222,
    "n_confident_wrong": 27,
    "survival_diffident_correct": 0.8182,
    "n_diffident_correct": 11
  },
  "descriptives": {
    "n_correct_founders": 52,
    "n_wrong_founders": 84,
    "mean_gen0_distinct": 2.305,
    "mean_final_distinct": 1.237
  }
}