{
  "generated": "2026-07-04",
  "prereg": "preregistration/2026-07-04_study3-contagion.md",
  "n_questions": 59,
  "n_founder_claims": 114,
  "bootstrap": {
    "resamples": 10000,
    "seed": 20260704
  },
  "survival_base_rate": 0.5439,
  "auc_survival_by": {
    "intro_confidence": 0.7449,
    "correctness": 0.7875,
    "length": 0.2837,
    "early_mover": 0.5,
    "fitness_composite": 0.5417
  },
  "P_S3_primary_confidence_vs_correctness": {
    "delta_auc_ci": {
      "mean": -0.0374,
      "lo": -0.1731,
      "hi": 0.1003
    },
    "verdict": "NOT CONFIRMED"
  },
  "secondary_composite_vs_correctness": {
    "delta_auc_ci": {
      "mean": -0.2384,
      "lo": -0.4617,
      "hi": -0.0023
    }
  },
  "confident_falsehood": {
    "median_intro_confidence": 0.9,
    "survival_confident_wrong": 0.1905,
    "n_confident_wrong": 21,
    "survival_diffident_correct": 0.6429,
    "n_diffident_correct": 14
  },
  "initial_popularity_control": {
    "note": "AUC among founder claims that started with a SINGLE asserter (intro_breadth==1) \u2014 survival there cannot be inherited from initial popularity",
    "n_singletons": 50,
    "auc_survival_by_confidence": 0.5253,
    "auc_survival_by_correctness": 0.5268
  },
  "descriptives": {
    "n_correct_founders": 51,
    "n_wrong_founders": 63,
    "mean_final_distinct": 1.136,
    "mean_gen0_distinct": 1.932
  }
}